Why South Ossetia, why now?
August 11, 2008
The fact that Saakashvili is pressuring South Ossetia now is obvious – the whole world is watching the Summer Olympics in Beijing. And it goes without saying the US will turn a blind eye to Saakashvili’s senseless aggression. NATO will probably do the same, though with the usual pinch of moralising and some fluff about respecting human rights.
I fully expect that Georgia will bring overwhelming military force to bear at some point. Many civilians will be killed. The whole operation will be called a “police action.” Saakashvili will claim that the status quo was untenable. (This of course strikes me as odd; the current status quo is far from perfect, but at least civilian deaths were low).
Can military action against South Ossetia succeed? Certainly. Georgia can invade and occupy South Ossetia. Western countries and Ukraine have supplied Georgia with an arsenal of heavy weaponry. And American military personnel have trained the new Georgian armed forces. Will Abkhazia honor its commitment to assist South Ossetia if it is invaded? Will Russian irregulars enter the fray? We have heard a lot of grand statements about this, but both claims are problematic at best.
Let’s assume Tbilisi can “win on the battlefield”. But will it be able to re-assimilate South Ossetia and South Ossetians? That will be very hard indeed. For about 15 years –almost a generation – this separatist republic has lived without Georgia, few Georgians, and the Georgian language. And Tbilisi’s brutal behaviour to stop South Ossetia’s bid for independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union literally created a lot of bad blood. To top it off, most citizens of South Ossetia have Russian passports. And there is strong evidence a South Ossetian identity now exists (and that identity is defined by not being Georgian or part of the Georgian state).
What will Russia do if there is a military strike against South Ossetia? Directly, I suspect it will do very little. It should be completely ruled out that Russia will use military force. But this does not mean Russia will remain neutral. Russia’s people-to-people contacts and trade links with South Ossetia are strong. Tbilisi will have to offer a lot of money and reconstruction – not to mention an apology for killing its civilians - to bring South Ossetia back into the fold. And this is the optimistic scenario!
This is where Russia will play an indirect role. South Ossetians look to Russia for help. And Russia has done that. Tbilisi’s trade blockade against South Ossetia (a very poor region) has seen Russia step-in to render a hand. Russia has brought peace and stability to this breakaway republic and it wants things to stay that way. A military conflict will completely upset the current arrangement.
By going to war, Tbilisi will have its hands full. It will cut South Ossetian-Russian ties. Not only will the financial costs be high for Tbilisi, but there will be South Ossetian resentment at being cut off from Russia’s North Ossetia. And Russia will object that its fellow passport holders will be subject to civil and human rights limitations and violations.
Georgia is poised to invade South Ossetia because it can. But South Ossetia is not the real aim of this. Abkhazia is the real target. South Ossetia is a test to gauge Russia’s reaction. Once active resistance is subdued in South Ossetia, Tbilisi will taunt Abkhazia with “See, your Russian friends didn’t do much for South Ossetia, nor will they really help you. Now come to the table and surrender.” This will be a huge miscalculation. Abkhazia is not South Ossetia.
Abkhazia is stable, self-confident and even rich - if investment continues. Abkhazia can also defend itself. A Georgian military operation against South Ossetia will have the opposite impact on Abkhazia – the latter will turn inward and cease to be part of any negotiated arrangement with Tbilisi. And it wouldn’t surprise me if Russia drew a line in the sand – that it will henceforth protect Russian citizens anywhere in the world (just like the US does today).
What will all of this lead to? South Ossetia, if invaded and occupied, will become a long-term headache for Tbilisi. A low-level insurgency will harass the Georgian occupiers. South Ossetian identity will only grow. NATO will also turn its back on Saakashvili - it will not induct a new member that is domestically unstable. Abkhazia will wait it out. Maybe in another 15 years the world will finally recognize the inevitable – Abkhazia is a viable nation-state worthy of independence. I am sure the Abkhazians are more than willing to wait for this to happen. Returning to Tbilisi’s fold is simply not an option anymore.
A parting thought: Saakashvili has it all wrong. The use of force or the threat of force demonstrates just how bankrupt his vision for a united Georgia is. He wants reconciliation by use of a gun. How can one truly and honestly resolve differences when one party puts a gun to the head of the other?
I have said time and again that Tbilisi has to take the hard road to unite the country. And that way is the “demonstration effect.” Make Tbilisi-controlled Georgia prosperous, safe, with a future, and not anti-Russia. When all of this really happens, then South Ossetia and Abkhazia might take a moment to reconsider their positions. Nothing succeeds like success!
To date, Saakashvili is one big loser.
Georgia’s drumbeat to war
I have to hand it to Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili – he has learned well at the school of “black PR.” He wants war to recapture control of the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but only as long as he isn’t seen as the aggressor. Saakashvili is not very imaginative – he is just replaying the game plan of manipulating media that witnessed Washington needlessly (and at great cost) invade and occupy Iraq. The same outcome awaits Saakashvili.
Starting a war these days is not all that hard. All you have to do is hire an experienced PR team that knows something about forced regime change and that can ceaselessly bombard media with sensational, sentimental, and outrageously false stories about an “oppressed people” or “country.”
Saakashvili knows what he is doing. All the tit-for-tat stuff fed to the media about “Russia’s creeping annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia” is nonsense. It is merely a well orchestrated ploy.
Georgia’s “rose-transformed-thorned” revolutionaries want the world to take pity upon “poor oppressed Georgia.” The International media loves this kind of story – the Russians playing the stereotyped role of the bad guys and the Georgian people only want to breathe Washington’s definition of freedom.
Never mind that the people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia aren’t ethnically Georgian. And never mind that with the break-up of the Soviet Union Tbilisi conducted a policy of gross nationalism that denied the national identity of the South Ossetians and Abkhazians. This led to civil wars - thousands died and they brought about forced dislocations. Russia was ASKED by Tbilisi to intervene to put an end to the violence. Moscow accepted and has promised to keep the peace on its borders ever since. Its humanitarian efforts have never truly been recognized.
Before I go on, let me make it emphatically clear that Russia recognizes Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But Moscow is also pragmatic. It is doubtful in the extreme that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will ever willingly return to Tbilisi’s embrace. Russia knows this. And, as a result, it looks to the future. Whether Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain apart of Georgia is their choice. But in the meantime, stability needs to be ensured. This is why Moscow is engaged with economic development in both regions. This really worries Saakashvili and he is contemplating war as a result.
Saakashvili is generously supported by the American taxpayer – though those same Americans are never told what they are paying for. Are they paying for the spread of democracy? Or are they actually paying off an authoritarian leader serving Washington? Maybe it is the expansion of American geopolitical interests at the expense of Russia and Russia’s neighborhood? They probably don’t really know, but I have no doubt Saakashvili is more than pleased by this. NATO membership for Georgia is his “get out of jail free card” proving he is a real “democrat.” NATO membership for Georgia means that Saakashvili will be bankrolled for a long time come.
Saakashvili is counting on Washington to support his wars of aggression against Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And recent statements coming out of the U.S. State Department, it seems to me, are preparing the world, and particularly the media, to support Saakashvili’s aggressive actions. But it will not work out as intended.
Saakashvili claims he is a Georgian patriot. In fact, he is Washington’s proxy. The so-called “Rose Revolution” would never have happened without Washington’s financing and coordination. And now the prospect of war is again on the agenda.
Misha Saakashvili understands a lot about playing the media. But has he really understood the law of unintended consequences? I think not. The Iraq adventure is a disaster. Going to war against Abkhazia and South Ossetia will result in the same. If Saakashvili is really the democrat he claims to be, then he should fall back on what is called the “demonstration affect.” He should make his Georgia a free and prosperous place first, and then try to attract the “frozen conflicts” to follow his lead. To date, he has never demonstrated that he has the maturity to be that pragmatic.
He seems to prefer the same immature statecraft as his American handlers.
Russia will not remain idle.