Cuba on brink of reform

Taras Dyachenko, en.fondsk.ru
August 13, 2010
With start of global financial crisis Cuba’s social and economic situation was affected. Mainly due to reduction in exports which could not be compensated by growing domestic market demand. Modest currency reserves prevent the government from boosting imports and at the same time subsidizing the population’s demand.

***
In view of this, a need for reform in the country’s socio-economic system became evident again. Changes in Cuba cannot be made hastily, otherwise they will cause even bigger problems, the country’s leader Raul Castro said addressing the 9th meeting of young communists in early April.

However, not everyone supports Mr. Castro`s cautious approach to solving existing difficulties. Local dissidents living on the money they get from Miami, as well the influential Catholic Church long for different solutions.

On 24 April, 2010, the magazine of the Havana Archdiocese, Palabra Nueva (New Word), posted a statement by Cardinal Jaime Ortega, who said that more and more Cubans were getting aware of the fact that their country was ‘in a very complicated situation’ and openly criticized the authorities, describing some of the officials as ‘apathetic followers of the Stalinist bureaucracy’.

However, Cardinal admitted that global economic downturn, the U.S. economic embargo against Cuba and the latest devastating hurricanes should be blamed for the country`s ongoing crisis. It can be added that in 2008 hurricane damage in Cuba was estimated at about $10 billion, which is not that little for a country with a $125 billion GDP.

Cardinal Ortega is mistaken about ‘the Stalinist bureaucrats’. If there had been any in Cuba, there would hardly have been so many problems. There is another question worthy focusing on. After 1959 Cuba made a major breakthrough in terms of social development, though a real ‘revolution of minds’ is far from completion. The result reminds us about the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev: on the one hand, he was pressed by a group of careerists from the party, on the other hand-by members of the society willing to sponge on the regime.

This is what Raul Castro and the most conscientious people in Cuba want to put an end to.

***
Raul Castro was expected to address the nation on 26th of July, when Cuba traditionally celebrate Revolution Day. In early July the Spanish El Pais reported that reforms of the stagnant economy might begin within the weeks to come. But at the celebrations of the 26th of July Movement Castro left it to his vice-president Machado Ventura to speak. The latter announced that Cuba would go through necessary reforms ‘without accepting outside pressure’. “At this historic moment we are going to change everything that should be changed. But (now) we will not yield to outside pressure, and neither will we betray our sovereignty and give up our dream about justice for Cuba and the rest of the world”, Mr. Ventura said addressing the people at Che Guevara Revolution Square in Santa Clara.

He said that people who had sacrificed their lives on 26th of July, 1953, did this not in vain, and that Cuba would remain faithful to their ideals. Mr. Ventura added that the country should focus on food production for ‘it guarantees stability of the whole social system’ and urged to economize, reduce state expenses and take up a more rational approach to spending money from the budget.

Major reforms were outline though nothing was said on how to implement them. It is up to Raul Castro to decide. While speaking at the parliament on 1st of August, Raul gave it to understand that he was not going to resort to market (in other words-capitalist) economy and denied reports in the western media that he had allegedly wanted to carry out economic reforms in Cuba relying on ‘capitalistic receipts’. Raul Castro emphasized that there was no divide among members of the Communist Party concerning pace and depth of the reforms.

He promised also to reduce role of state in some spheres and grant more economic freedom to the citizens, including opportunities to start small businesses.

First of all, Cuba will reduce state expenses. Raul Castro warned that civil servants unable to work effectively would be fired. “We must dispel a myth about Cuba as the only country in the world where you can live and be unemployed”, he said.

The Cuban leader also mentioned his decision to free 52 political prisoners. Mr. Castro said that ‘none of these men were convicted for their beliefs but for counter-revolutionary activities’ as viewed by the United States.

So, Raul Castro has not yet made everything clear. But this is not the issue to be surprised at. In socialist state all major decisions, including those related to upcoming reforms, are usually made by the party. Now we should expect its members to gather for a special meeting to discuss it.

***
As Cuba was waiting for crucial decisions to be made, Fidel Castro, who is going to turn 84 on 13th of August, announced about his full recovery from a grave illness. In the past few weeks he has appeared for several times on TV and in public meetings. He even resumed traveling outside Havana and attended a memorial for slain revolutionaries in Artemisa.

Shortly after Fidel Castro announced his recovery, the western media wrote he had done so to prevent his brother Raul from carrying out his reforms. When it became known that Fidel Castro was expected to address the Cuban National Assembly, the Italian Corriere della Sera reported that it was the time ‘to pay off old scores’: “Fidel is expected to address the national assembly for the first time since 2006 when he handed over power to his brother Raul. This will become Fidel`s ultimate attempt to protect his regime from reformist movements. His younger brother Raul has taken up a Chinese method: to implement economic reforms without political ones”.

But it turned out later that journalists had been too hasty in indulging in wishful thinking. Fidel Castro did address the National Assembly but he spoke only about global issues, including the U.S. possible attack on Iran and North Korea. “Apocalypse is imminent unless humankind stops damaging the environment and world leaders abandon the U.S. militaristic policy”- this is how Fidel Castro`s speech was rendered in El Pais on 8th of August.

The Spanish paper added that Fidel had said nothing about domestic issues and reforms. The journalists conclude that the brothers had divided roles, with Raul dealing with home affairs and Fidel paying more attention to external policies. So, there is no collision of interests to be spoken about.

The parliament welcomed Fidel Castro with thunder applause. He was accompanied by his brother Raul, and it was their first joint public appearance since 2006.

Many in Cuba and abroad thought that Fidel Castro was returning into big politics. But judging from numerous articles he had written during his illness, he did not quit at all. What is important here is that Castro’s comeback into the country’s political and social life does not mean his intention to take everything under control.

In an interview with the BBC on 7th August, Cuba's Culture Minister Abel Prieto denied rumors of Castro’s possible return into big politics and said that the Commandante`s only aim was ‘to make the people of Cuba happy’. “I think, he has always taken part in the country’s political development but he is not a member of parliament. He`s been leading an active way of life, and we are happy about this, but he does not interfere in home affairs, paying attention to global policies only”, Prieto said.

In his turn, Raul Castro was puzzled at the debates over his elder brother`s return into big politics and said there were no differences between them about the way Cuba should follow in its development.

***
For Cuba, the beginning of the 21st century has turned out to be not easier than the late 20th century. In view of this, realistic approach demonstrated by the Cuban leaders appears to be quite to the point. The official Havana is revising lessons of Gorbachev`s perestroika in the Soviet Union, as well as controversial results of Deng Xiaoping`s reforms in China. This is the only way to avoid repetitions. Decisions Havana has to take now will rely on national experience and peculiarities of the Latin American civilization. Now it is important not to drag out this process in aftermath of the global economic meltdown.
Share
Copied!